While working on this chapter, one idea kept returning. In service design, uncertainty is not just something to reduce. It is something we need to understand more carefully.
Some problems are relatively stable. We know what the issue is, and we can work toward a solution step by step. But many service design challenges do not look like this. The problem itself keeps changing. Different stakeholders define it differently. Sometimes even the goal is unclear.
In the chapter, we try to make sense of this by looking at two things. First, the type of problem. A simple service problem requires a very different approach from a complex or “wicked” one. Second, the source of uncertainty. It may come from users, from organizations, or from broader changes in society.
Another point became important as we wrote. Uncertainty is not only outside the designer. It also comes from the design process itself. The way we define users, the tools we choose, and the assumptions we make can all introduce new uncertainty.
This leads to a different question. Instead of asking how to eliminate uncertainty, what if we ask how to design services that can live with it?
One answer we explore is resilience. A service does not need to predict everything in advance. But it should be able to adapt, respond, and recover when conditions change. This requires flexibility, ongoing feedback, and often a different mindset about control.
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Reference
Santos, Aguinaldo dos, Ricardo Martins, Mari Suhoeimo, and Jaewoo Joo (2026), “Embracing the unknown: service design approaches to address uncertainty,” in The Bloomsbury Handbook of Service Design: Plural Perspectives and a Critical Contemporary Agenda, Lara De Sousa Penin, Alison Prendiville, and Daniela Sangiorgieds, eds., Bloomsbury Publishing, ISBN: 9781350330283.
